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Tucows - Has a deferred problem

Tue, 12 Feb 2008 11:49:00 -0400

Tucows (AMEX:TCX) has lost 50% of its market value since July 2007. Yes it has dropped from $1.26 to $0.63 a share, a 50% drop over the last six months.

The Company just released it’s year end financial statement, so now is a good time for a quick review of the basics:

- Annual revenues were $74.6 M vs. $65 M for the previous year – up 14%, nothing wrong there.
- Net Income $2.6 M vs. $2.1 M – up 24% -- direction is good.
- EBITDA $8.7 M vs. $5.8 M – up 50% -- something to write home about.

Tucows has a market cap of $46.5 million. The overall value could be stated as:

- 5.3X EBITDA
- .62X trailing revenues.
- PE Ratio 18.68

So why is Tucows trading so low? Why has it dropped a whopping 50%? As a high tech firm it deserves at least a 40 P/E ratio. It should be trading at a 1X revenue range, frankly more. That would take it back the July stock price.

The problem is the Tucows balance sheet. The Company has $80 million in liabilities. How is Tucows going to make it? Given current EBITDA one could take almost 10 years to pay it back, not including interest. The game is over; tank the deal, time to trade out.

WRONG WRONG WRONG ---- Tucows needs more liabilities, I think liabilities should go through the roof. They should be the master of liabilities; the street just doesn’t get it.

Financially speaking there are not many firms like Tucows. They sell millions of little things, sort of like Coca Cola. However those little things are domain names, selling for lets say $12. Since they are paid “up front” for a specific period, usually one year, the revenues for these are recognized at $1 per month, not the $12 when the transaction occurred. Sort of like cash vs. accrual accounting.

The bulk of the liabilities time out in one year, when hopefully, they start all over again. Look at it as millions of itsy bitsy revolving loans.

Of the $80 million in liabilities, $50 million (63%) is tied to deferred revenues resulting from domain registration sales. Domain name registrations account for 73% of revenues.

Usually I hate deferred revenues (which is a topic for a separate writing). However for Tucows it is the business model.

I might be naive, but I don't think many people drive up to Tucows and say..."I stopped using my domain name...I want my $3 back". I have a hard time rationalizing how GAAP, in the practical world, should apply here.

Tucows – Has a deferred problem. One the street does not understand, and one I think is holding the stock price down.

========== MORE ABOUT TOM ==========

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